[Ipg-smz] Prognostication

[Tom Henderson]

Fellow Guilders,

I looked into the crystal ball.

If one believes the success of the EU (DE, FR, IT) approach to the 
pandemic, then buy EU stocks, and those of Singapore, S Korea, and Taiwan.

You and I (for the most part US Guilders) will largely be in the same 
jail for the next six months, as the ability for the US, given its 
currently diffuse practices, will have much turmoil until a vaccine is 
equitably distributed. I predict the first mass trials will begin at the 
end of July, given progress by several drug vendors, but production 
takes real time, as does supply chain to the neediest. Without the 
equitable distribution, the economy cannot recover, because we need 
worker bees, as well as queens to get the real honey (thanks for the 
metaphor thought spawned by asking myself, what would Phil Shapiro 
do?/WWPSD?).

China cannot strengthen, nor can Russia. Africa will be devastated, 
perhaps worse than Brasil. S Korea will start to become very powerful 
during this time; their engine is already supplying torque to the 
economies of the ASEAN countries. Places that depend on tourism or 
tourism supply chain will become moderately starved until next year.

You'll be wearing masks past Halloween. Some of us have the insulation 
of freelance work, but media will start to become a desert. Big IT will 
continue, but small IT will struggle, along with the vendor community 
that tries to support its success. Small business will get shafted. Tax 
revenue and deficits will soar, and the negative reaction to tax 
increases until after January will hobble governmental response. Buy 
tires; the potholes will become like Dresden After The Bombing.

Cheers and happiness,

Tom


-- 
Tom Henderson
ExtremeLabs, Inc.
+1 317 250 4646
Twitter: @extremelabs
Skype: extremelabsinc
He/him